Renewables over the last 30 days: total curtailment 100.5 GWh (most in Tohoku 39.1 GWh, 10 of 30 days); solar capture rate Kyushu 50.0% at ¥6.93/kWh, Tokyo 73.0% at ¥18.56/kWh; floor-price hours Kyushu 46 h.

Curtailment 30d: 100.5 GWh
Tohoku curtailment: 39.1 GWh
Kyushu solar capture: 50.0%
Tokyo solar capture: 73.0%
Kyushu floor hours: 46 h
Hokkaido floor hours: 38 h

Solar cannibalisation · curtailment (出力制御) · duck curve · EPRX 三次② forecast error

Renewables Analytics

Solar capture price

10.02¥/kWh

capture rate 67% of baseload 14.88

Wind capture price

15.07¥/kWh

capture rate 101%

Midday vs evening

8.6 / 24.6¥/kWh

floor hours 62 h · price↔VRE corr -0.50

Curtailed energy

51.9GWh

solar 47.5 · wind 4.4 · ratio 1.89%

Duck curve · Kyushu (九州)

Average 48-slot profile 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-23 (61 days): demand, net demand after VRE, solar, wind, price

Area price
Demand
Net demand (after VRE)
Solar
Solar curtailed
Wind

Daily capture rate & midday depression

Solar-weighted price ÷ time-weighted price · midday (10–14h) ÷ daily average

Floor hours
Midday/day ratio
Solar capture rate
Wind capture rate

Price vs VRE penetration

Average area price by solar+wind share of demand (per slot)

Avg price ¥
Floor share %

Next-day curtailment outlooks · 再エネ出力制御見通し · nine TSOs

Each TSO's own outlook for the coming days (需給バランス制約), fetched hourly with every issue kept · newest issue per area · latest issue 10-23 17:09 JST

CSV

Areas flagged · 10-23 Fri · today

no TSO flags curtailment

当日指示予定 or 指示実施

no instruction planned in the window

TSO pages read · last run

8/9

Kyushu on history fallback

Next-day precision · record

61%

recall 87% · 227 target days

Area · TSO	Issued (JST)	10-23 Fri · today	10-24 Sat · D+1	10-25 Sun · D+2	10-26 Mon · D+3	P(curtailment day)	Last 30 d	Read
Hokkaido (北海道) 北海道電力ネットワーク	10-23 17:06	—	－ none	可能性あり	可能性あり	15%	28/30 d · 4,968 MWh	HTML
Tohoku (東北) 東北電力ネットワーク	10-23 17:00	—	－ none	－ none	－ none	20%	10/30 d · 78,125 MWh	image
Tokyo (東京) 東京電力パワーグリッド	10-23 16:50	—	－ none	－ none	－ none	2%	2/30 d · 5,861 MWh	CSV
Chubu (中部) 中部電力パワーグリッド	10-23 17:00	—	－ none	－ none	－ none	9%	4/30 d · 5,173 MWh	CSV
Hokuriku (北陸) 北陸電力送配電	10-23 17:00	—	－ none	－ none	－ none	5%	3/30 d · 2,158 MWh	HTML
Kansai (関西) 関西電力送配電	10-23 17:09	—	－ none	－ none	－ none	22%	2/30 d · 222 MWh	CSV
Chugoku (中国) 中国電力ネットワーク	10-23 16:18	—	－ none	－ none	－ none	17%	8/30 d · 20,274 MWh	HTML
Shikoku (四国) 四国電力送配電	10-23 17:00	—	－ none	－ none	－ none	22%	10/30 d · 21,741 MWh	HTML
Kyushu (九州) 九州電力送配電	10-21 17:00	—	~48% · history	~48% · history	~38% · history	41%	15/30 d · 63,556 MWh	history!

－ none · no curtailment expected可能性あり · possible (可能性あり)当日指示予定 · instruction planned on the day (当日指示予定)指示実施 · instruction issued (指示実施)history · same-month weekday/weekend rate blended with the last 30 d (TSO page not readable)click a row for its snapshot history and base rates

Tohoku: Tohoku publishes the outlook only as a GIF; cells are read by pixel density (－ vs text width) — labelled as an image read.

Kyushu: The last fetch failed or is stale; showing the history-based probability until the page is readable again.

Hit rate by horizon · newest outlook per target day vs TSO 需給実績 · 2026-10-13 → 2026-10-22 · n=227

Horizon	Days	Flagged	Curtailed	Precision	Recall	False alarm	MWh flagged / not
D+1	86	33	23	61%	87%	21%	1,693 / 1
D+2	75	33	22	61%	91%	25%	1,584 / 86
D+3	66	23	19	61%	74%	19%	1,993 / 182

Next-day (D+1) record by area

Area	Days	Hits	Misses	False alarms	Precision	Recall
Chubu (中部)	10	1	0	0	100%	100%
Chugoku (中国)	10	3	0	2	60%	100%
Hokkaido (北海道)	6	3	3	0	100%	50%
Hokuriku (北陸)	10	1	0	0	100%	100%
Kansai (関西)	10	1	0	1	50%	100%
Kyushu (九州)	10	5	0	2	71%	100%
Shikoku (四国)	10	3	0	5	38%	100%
Tohoku (東北)	10	2	0	3	40%	100%
Tokyo (東京)	10	1	0	0	100%	100%

再生可能エネルギー出力制御見通し (nine general TSOs)· 2026-10-23 08:14verified

Each TSO publishes a 再生可能エネルギー出力制御見通し (需給バランス制約) around 17:00 JST for the next day plus two reference days: 「－」 none expected, 「可能性あり」 possible, 「当日指示予定」 instruction planned on the day for online units, 「指示実施」 instruction issued (（バイオマス） variants concern biomass only and count as no VRE curtailment here). Pages are fetched hourly and every issue is kept, so the hit rate compares the newest outlook per target day with the TSO's own 需給実績 (curtailed MWh > 0 on a complete 48-slot day): precision = curtailed ÷ flagged, recall = flagged ÷ curtailed, false-alarm = flagged ÷ non-curtailed days. Where a page is not machine-readable the board shows the history-based probability (same-month weekday/weekend curtailment-day rate blended with the last 30 days) and says so.

Daily curtailment & solar output

MWh curtailed (solar/wind) and solar peak MW

Midday VRE share %
Solar curtailed MWh
Solar peak MW
Wind curtailed MWh

Renewable forecast error · Kyushu (九州) · EPRX 三次調整力②

FIT (特例①③) day-ahead vs gate-closure forecast error · 2026-07-02 → 2026-08-31 (61 days) · positive = actual below the day-ahead schedule · reserve = 三次② requirement (必要量)

1σ forecast error

409 MW

mean |error| 230 MW

P95 |error|

1,022 MW

mean reserve 257 MW

Reserve fully used

18.4%

half-hours with 使用率 = 100%

Shortfall share

57%

half-hours with actual < day-ahead

Error % of VRE output

9.7%

1σ ÷ TSO solar+wind · 61 joined days

Calculator default (90d)

10.7%

EPRX-derived area aggregate · used when blank

By hour · σ error & 三次② requirement (MW) · share of half-hours at full reserve use

Full-use %
Reserve requirement MW
σ error MW

Error distribution · σ bins (right = shortfall)

Monthly since April 2025 · σ and P95 |error| vs mean reserve requirement (MW)

P95 |error| MW
Reserve requirement MW
σ MW

EPRX 三次調整力②の使用率等: 必要量 = reserve requirement, 誤差実績 = the FIT (特例①③) forecast REVISION between the day-ahead schedule and the gate-closure schedule (positive = downward revision vs the day-ahead schedule) — it measures the day-ahead-to-gate-closure revision, NOT the error against actual output, 使用率 = error ÷ requirement (0–100%). The calculator default % = EPRX-derived area aggregate: mean absolute error of (error ÷ TSO solar + wind output) over the last 90 days, excluding half-hours with negligible renewable output. It is computed by JEPX Pulse from EPRX 三次② data and is not an official figure. Use the plant-level error multiplier to scale it to a single plant.

Area spotlight card · Kyushu (九州) · 2026-10-24

Latest delivery day for the selected area · 48-slot curve, price KPIs, capture & curtailment · 1200×675 PNG for regional PPA discussions

JEPX Pulse · Area Spotlight Kyushu 九州

Day-ahead delivery Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · rank #8 of 9 areas

jepx-pulse.com

JEPX スポット市場 · 九州エリア需給実績 (TSO)

Kyushu averaged ¥17.46/kWh (-0.92 d/d), #8 of 9 areas, -16.12 vs Tokyo — decoupled from the system price in 24.0 h

TSO supply-demand data for 2026-10-24 not yet published — renewables figures are from 2026-10-22, the latest complete TSO day — 0.0 floor hours, midday/day ratio 0.64; 30 days to 2026-10-22: solar capture rate 50%, curtailment 2.38%

Shape: peak ¥31.22 at 17:30, trough ¥10.81 at 10:00 — evening − midday spread ¥17.75/kWh; 30-day avg ¥14.34, split share 97%, floor 42.5 h

48-slot day-ahead price · ¥/kWhKyushuSystemTokyo¥0.01 floor

Area avg

17.46¥/kWh

-0.92 d/d · 30d avg 14.34

vs Tokyo

-16.12¥/kWh

vs system -9.76 · 30d -11.44

Split hours

24.0h

≠ system · 30d share 97%

Floor hours

0.0h

¥0.01 slots · 30d 42.5 h

Peak / trough

31.2 / 10.8

17:30 / 10:00

Midday / day

0.64

mid 11.2 · eve 28.9 (+17.8)

Renewables · TSO 需給実績 · 2026-10-22 (latest TSO day; card date 2026-10-24)

30d: solar capture 50% · wind 101% · curtailment 2.38%

Solar capture · 41,291 MWh

4.03¥/kWh

24% of 2026-10-22 baseload

Wind capture · 5,605 MWh

17.96¥/kWh

106% of 2026-10-22 baseload

Curtailed (出力制御)

852MWh

1.78% of VRE · solar 852 / wind 0

Midday VRE share

68%

solar peak 6,644 MW · RE 36%

Sources: JEPX スポット市場 (day-ahead, 48 slots) · 九州 TSO エリア需給実績 (solar/wind output & 出力制御) · Capture rate = generation-weighted ÷ time-weighted price · For information only, not investment adviceGenerated 2026-10-23 09:11 UTC

All areas · 60 days

Composite risk index = 40% floor-price share + 40% curtailment ratio + 20% midday depression

Common TSO window 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-22; areas with a shorter window are marked amber.

Area	Avg ¥	Floor h	Floor %	Midday/Day	Solar capture ¥	Solar capture rate	Wind capture rate	Curtail %	RE share	Risk idx	ID realisation	TSO window
■ Hokkaido 北海道	16.22	62.0	4.2%	0.46	7.78	50%	93%	0.65%	48%	26	90%	08-24 → 10-18 ⚠
■ Tohoku 東北	19.42	51.5	3.5%	0.51	9.17	48%	104%	2.00%	48%	27	91%	08-24 → 10-22
■ Tokyo 東京	24.40	8.0	0.5%	0.88	20.59	85%	101%	0.08%	15%	5	90%	08-24 → 10-22
■ Chubu 中部	24.19	12.0	0.8%	0.84	19.37	81%	100%	0.11%	25%	7	91%	08-24 → 10-22
■ Hokuriku 北陸	18.54	12.0	0.8%	0.94	15.48	84%	103%	0.36%	37%	4	105%	08-24 → 10-22
■ Kansai 関西	18.21	17.0	1.1%	0.92	15.99	89%	103%	0.01%	17%	4	105%	08-24 → 10-22
■ Chugoku 中国	15.91	44.5	3.0%	0.67	10.55	67%	96%	0.66%	25%	18	85%	08-24 → 10-22
■ Shikoku 四国	13.29	95.5	6.4%	0.66	9.00	67%	103%	1.56%	38%	26	82%	08-24 → 10-22
■ Kyushu 九州	14.97	61.5	4.1%	0.58	10.01	67%	101%	1.90%	32%	26	87%	08-24 → 10-22

Solar capture rates and curtailment: key questions

What is a solar capture rate?

The average JEPX day-ahead price weighted by solar output, divided by the simple time-weighted average price for the same area and period. At 100% solar earns the baseload average; below about 80% signals heavy cannibalisation, as midday solar pushes prices down. Compare area prices on the JEPX spot price by area page.

What is curtailment (出力制御)?

An order from the area's transmission and distribution company (一般送配電事業者) to cut solar or wind output when supply would exceed demand. Under the priority dispatch rules (優先給電ルール) it comes only after thermal output is reduced, pumped hydro is run to absorb power, electricity is sent to other areas over the interconnectors (see interconnector flows and congestion) and biomass output is cut; hydro, nuclear and geothermal are reduced last. The volumes on this page come from each TSO's area supply-demand actuals (エリア需給実績).

What are floor-price hours?

Half-hours in which the JEPX day-ahead price clears at its minimum of ¥0.01/kWh, a sign that renewable supply exceeds demand in that area. They often coincide with curtailment.