Latest daily briefing 2026-10-22: System price fell to ¥22.41 (−¥8.72 d/d) as a clear-sky midday pushed the trough to ¥8.34 at 12:00 and dragged five western/northern areas to the ¥0.01 floor. Every half-hour was split (split_share 100 % in all areas), w
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- 2026-10-22
Claude Fable 5.1 · grounded in live JEPX, TSO & OCCTO data · auto-generated daily 07:30 JST
AI Market Briefing
Daily briefing · 2026-10-23
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Briefing card
Headline, key figures and three takeaways of the 2026-10-23 briefing as a 1200×675 PNG for LinkedIn · Stored briefing needed first
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Weekly market card
Mon–Sun summary for LinkedIn · prices, curtailment & imbalance highlights + 3 Claude headlines · cached 2026-10-18 22:00 UTC · auto-generated every Monday 07:00 JST
JEPX Pulse · Weekly Market Card
Japan power market · 2026 · Week 42 · 12–18 Oct 2026
jepx-pulse.com
JEPX day-ahead · TSO actuals · OCCTO imbalance & 連系線 · ¥/kWh
Spot avg ¥21.01 (+8.2%), peak ¥39.0; 東京–中部 FC congestion 56h led splits; Kyushu +15.7%, Hokkaido -19.7%
Curtailment 24.93 GWh, Kyushu 10.91 (solar 10.47), Chugoku 5.37, Tohoku 5.14; 63.5 floor hours, Shikoku 15.0
Hokkaido spikes 27.5h (max ¥43.5); intraday ±¥3.29; 複合 Hokkaido 45.9% short, 一次 ¥3.47 vs ¥10 cap, BESS 37.4%
System price · week avg
21.01¥/kWh
+1.59 w/w (+8.2%) · midday ×0.41
Peak / trough
39.0 / 0.0
▲ 10-13 16:30 · ▼ 10-17 10:00
¥0.01 floor hours
63.5h · all areas
areas split in 100% of slots
Curtailment (出力制御)
24.93GWh
Kyushu 10.91 GWh · 5 day(s)
Imbalance price · avg
17.62¥/kWh
-0.55 vs DA · spikes 5.2%
| Area | Avg ¥ | w/w | Floor h | Curtail GWh | Split | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ■ Hokkaido 北海道 | 17.68 | -4.34 | 9.5 | 0.00 | 96% | |
| ■ Tohoku 東北 | 22.28 | +1.51 | 10.0 | 5.14 | 96% | |
| ■ Tokyo 東京 | 25.08 | +1.20 | 0.5 | 1.77 | 100% | |
| ■ Chubu 中部 | 23.11 | +0.21 | 3.0 | 0.53 | 97% | |
| ■ Hokuriku 北陸 | 17.76 | +1.80 | 3.0 | 0.04 | 96% | |
| ■ Kansai 関西 | 17.10 | +1.14 | 3.0 | 0.05 | 96% | |
| ■ Chugoku 中国 | 14.74 | +1.18 | 8.0 | 5.37 | 96% | |
| ■ Shikoku 四国 | 11.13 | -2.11 | 15.0 | 1.12 | 96% | |
| ■ Kyushu 九州 | 14.70 | +1.99 | 11.5 | 10.91 | 96% |
Top movers w/w
Kyushu+1.99(+15.7%)
Hokkaido-4.34(-19.7%)
Settlement risk & grid
Grid congestionFrequency converters 56h · 56% of splits · all 196hImb. spikes156 slots · Hokkaido 27.5h · Shikoku 10.0hMax imbalance67.50 · Chubu 10-16 05:30Imbalance vs DA-0.55 ¥/kWh · spikes 5.2%Intraday vs DA+0.91 ¥/kWh · 56% above · 167 GWhSpot volume6,698 GWh · 7 days
Daily system avg · bar = min–max range
20.6
Mo
24.7
Tu
24.2
We
21.4
Th
21.6
Fr
17.6
Sa
17.1
Su
Sources: JEPX spot & intraday · TSO area supply-demand actuals (OCCTO format) · OCCTO imbalance prices & 連系線 flows · Headlines: Claude · For information only, not investment adviceGenerated 2026-10-18
Weekly balancing card
Area × product ΔkW heat-map of the week · EN / 日本語 · rule-based headlines
JEPX Pulse · Balancing Market Card
需給調整市場 · EPRX ΔkW results · 2026 · Week 42 · 12–18 Oct 2026
jepx-pulse.com
TSO-basis awards · ¥/ΔkW·30 min · day-ahead regime
Shortfall: Hokkaido 三次調整力① missed 144 MW (59% of the requested 244 MW) — TSOs failed to procure 13.6% of all requested ΔkW this week (+5.6 pp w/w)
Prices: Hokkaido 三次調整力② cleared ¥13.11/ΔkW·30min (no cap) · cap reached on 41 area-days
Batteries won 40% of 一次調整力 awards (+8.0 pp w/w) at ¥3.25 vs thermal ¥3.21; 複合商品 14% — nationwide 速報値 resource-type data
Unprocured ΔkW · all products
13.6%of requested
+5.6 pp vs W41
Largest shortfall cell
144MW · Hokkaido 三次①
59% of 244 MW requested
Highest cleared price
13.11Hokkaido 三次②
no ΔkW cap
Cap pressure
0cells at cap
cap reached on 41 area-days
Battery share · 一次調整力
40%+8.0 pp w/w
¥3.25 vs thermal ¥3.21 · 複合 14%
| price · short % hd to cap · awd/req MW | Hokkaido 北海道 | Tohoku 東北 | Tokyo 東京 | Chubu 中部 | Hokuriku 北陸 | Kansai 関西 | Chugoku 中国 | Shikoku 四国 | Kyushu 九州 | All areas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Primary (online) 一次調整力 cap ¥10+0.36 w/w | 6.776% 32% hd67/49 | 5.179% 48% hd97/98 | 3.436% 66% hd276/281 | 2.239% 78% hd136/149 | 2.4127% 76% hd46/63 | 1.865% 81% hd140/141 | 2.8811% 71% hd142/146 | 1.190% 88% hd50/44 | 4.644% 54% hd172/174 | 3.408% 66% hd125/127 |
Primary offline 一次オフライン cap ¥10+0.31 w/w | 7.7077% 23% hd4/18 | 4.4828% 55% hd42/47 | 4.0426% 60% hd68/91 | 2.1114% 79% hd69/79 | 2.6062% 74% hd12/30 | 1.9853% 80% hd42/89 | 1.5464% 85% hd28/76 | 1.6994% 83% hd1/10 | 1.2923% 87% hd52/62 | 3.2040% 69% hd35/56 |
Secondary ① 二次調整力① cap ¥10+0.73 w/w | 7.4129% 26% hd64/70 | 6.3267% 38% hd53/149 | 2.2918% 77% hd242/253 | 1.748% 83% hd229/127 | 2.6473% 73% hd24/47 | 0.5055% 95% hd32/54 | 3.3527% 67% hd111/115 | 1.2710% 87% hd43/45 | 6.628% 34% hd168/154 | 3.7228% 65% hd107/113 |
Secondary ② 二次調整力② cap ¥7.21+0.58 w/w | 5.4528% 24% hd67/65 | 4.955% 31% hd289/265 | no demand | 1.8110% 75% hd256/134 | 1.9415% 72% hd51/45 | 1.237% 84% hd63/31 | 2.8814% 55% hd165/133 | 0.800% 89% hd126/63 | 5.312% 26% hd345/195 | 2.988% 58% hd197/104 |
Tertiary ① 三次調整力① cap ¥7.21+0.45 w/w | 4.7759% 35% hd100/244 | 5.136% 29% hd308/268 | 2.1010% 71% hd732/725 | 1.708% 77% hd277/193 | 1.9221% 74% hd91/113 | 1.1012% 85% hd188/210 | 2.4415% 66% hd286/299 | 0.912% 87% hd151/139 | 4.017% 44% hd503/501 | 2.6914% 63% hd293/299 |
Tertiary ② 三次調整力② no cap+0.85 w/w | 13.1113% no cap27/31 | 4.301% no cap34/34 | 0.931% no cap229/231 | 5.464% no cap58/60 | 1.5629% no cap1/1 | 6.3626% no cap40/55 | 0.6618% no cap8/10 | 0.560% no cap24/24 | 1.470% no cap36/36 | 4.206% no cap51/54 |
Composite 複合商品 cap ¥10+0.46 w/w | 5.5846% 44% hd141/262 | 4.857% 52% hd440/454 | 2.538% 75% hd869/843 | 1.857% 81% hd377/383 | 2.1319% 79% hd114/135 | 1.397% 86% hd299/310 | 2.2514% 78% hd320/363 | 0.880% 91% hd179/164 | 3.700% 63% hd613/584 | 2.8010% 72% hd372/389 |
Cell: avg cleared ¥/ΔkW·30 min · shortfall % (red = unprocured) · cap headroom · awarded/requested MW · 0/7 days 確報値 · Source: EPRX 取引実績 · For information onlyGenerated 2026-10-22
Congestion outlook card
Tomorrow's tie-line outlook for LinkedIn · spot capacity, D-1 plan-at-limit hours, reasons & signal record · refreshed with every hourly OCCTO update
JEPX Pulse · Congestion Outlook
Japan interconnectors (連系線) · Fri, 23 Oct 2026 · Today
jepx-pulse.com
OCCTO 空容量 (D-2 spot · D-1 plan) · 潮流実績 · JEPX day-ahead
7 tie-lines planned at limit today: Hokkaido–Honshu HVDC (17h fwd), Honshi (21.5h rev) and Seiban–Higashi-Okayama (20h rev) signal discounted Hokkaido and Shikoku export prices; 47% past hit rate.
7 tie-lines planned at the limit for 2026-10-23 — area splits likely: Honshi (21.5h at limit, rev); Seiban–Higashi-Okayama (20.0h at limit, rev); Hokkaido–Honshu HVDC (17.0h at limit, fwd)
OCCTO cut spot capacity vs the 30-day norm on Anan–Kihoku HVDC −22% rev (熱容量)
Signal record (180 days): a planned-at-limit flag was followed by actual congestion in 47% of half-hours (base rate 21%), catching 72% of congestion
SignalTie-lineSpot usable f / rPlan at limitReason / status
Split likelyHonshi CGK→SKK1,200 / 1,200 MW0.0f / 21.5r h熱容量（作業）
Split likelySeiban–Higashi-Okayama KNS→CGK3,290 / 3,290 MW0.0f / 20.0r h熱容量（作業）
Split likelyHokkaido–Honshu HVDC HKD→THK360 / 45 MW17.0f / 0.0r h熱容量（作業）
Split likelyChubu fence CBU boundary1,968 / 2,872 MW0.0f / 14.5r h安定度（作業）
Split likelySoma-Futaba THK→TKO4,638 / 2,360 MW8.0f / 0.0r h安定度（作業）
Split likelyFrequency converters TKO→CBU750 / 750 MW5.5f / 0.0r h熱容量（作業）
Split likelyKanmon CGK→KYS629 / 2,140 MW0.0f / 2.5r h周波数
ClearKansai fence KNS boundary1,968 / 2,868 MW0.0f / 0.5r hheadroom on both directions
ClearHokuriku fence HRK boundary2,517 / 2,770 MW0.0f / 0.0r hheadroom on both directions
Split likely
7
Watch
0
Hit rate
47%
Split likely = D-1 plan fills the link (ATC ≤ 2% in ≥ 2 h) · Watch = spot capacity ≥ 20% below 30-day norm · D-1 plan published · day-ahead prices known
Sources: OCCTO 系統情報サービス 連系線空容量 (翌々日・翌日) & 潮流実績 · JEPX day-ahead · Signals rule-based · Hook: Claude · For information only, not investment adviceGenerated 2026-10-22 17:12 UTC
Scarcity-adjustment outlook card
Tomorrow's implied 需給ひっ迫時補正 per area from the OCCTO 広域予備率 forecast · peak ¥/kWh and hour, hours with an adjustment, day-ahead at the peak · refreshed with every hourly OCCTO update
JEPX Pulse · Scarcity Adjustment Outlook
需給ひっ迫時補正 implied by the OCCTO 広域予備率 forecast · Fri, 23 Oct 2026 · Tomorrow
jepx-pulse.com
C/D ¥300/¥50 · from 1 Oct 2026 · D-1/D-0 files
Chubu, Hokuriku and Kansai face a ¥94/kWh imbalance floor at 13:30 tomorrow (reserve 7.12%, 18 h adjusted) versus ¥36.99 day-ahead, so hedge the afternoon and hold BESS energy rather than run short.
Chubu (+ Hokuriku, Kansai): implied 補正 ¥94.0/kWh at 13:30 — forecast 広域予備率 7.12 %, 18.0 h with a scarcity adjustment; day-ahead there ¥36.99
5 of 9 areas carry an implied adjustment for 2026-10-23; clear: Hokkaido, Tohoku, Tokyo, Shikoku · rule: ¥300 below 3 %, ¥50 at 8 %, 0 at ≥10 %
Last 30 days: the adjustment applied in 525 area-half-hours; max ¥300.0 in Chubu on 2026-10-21 15:30 (index 2.75 %)
Area補正 by half-hour · 00 → 24Min 予備率Peak 補正h > 0h at capDA at peak
■ Chubu
7.12%¥94.0 13:3018.00.0¥36.99
■ Hokuriku
7.12%¥94.0 13:3017.50.0¥36.99
■ Kansai
7.12%¥94.0 13:3017.50.0¥36.99
■ Chugoku
8.07%¥48.3 16:3012.50.0¥38.59
■ Kyushu
8.07%¥48.3 16:3012.50.0¥38.59
■ Hokkaido
13.87%none0.00.0¥17.96
■ Tohoku
10.53%none0.00.0¥27.30
■ Tokyo
10.53%none0.00.0¥27.30
■ Shikoku
22.41%none0.00.0¥12.74
Peak 補正
¥94
Chubu 13:30
Areas flagged
5/9
0 at the cap
Max hours
18.0h
with 補正 > 0
Rule · 補正 ¥/kWh vs 広域予備率 · dots = each area's forecast minimum
Imbalance price = max(調整力の限界的なkWh価格, 補正) · the published 補正料金算定インデックス equals the OCCTO 広域予備率 (verified) · strip colour saturates at ¥100 · forecasts are revised until delivery
Sources: OCCTO 広域予備率Web公表システム · インバランス料金情報公表ウェブサイト 算定根拠 · JEPX day-ahead · Rule-based · Hook: Claude · For information only, not investment adviceGenerated 2026-10-22 17:12 UTC