Reference prices for the PPA/FIT/FIP and BESS calculator: 30-day JEPX system average ¥20.82/kWh, 7-day ¥26.32/kWh; area 7-day averages from ¥9.76/kWh (Shikoku) to ¥29.93/kWh (Tokyo).
- System 30d avg
- ¥20.82/kWh
- System 7d avg
- ¥26.32/kWh
- Tokyo 7d
- ¥29.93/kWh
- Kansai 7d
- ¥24.81/kWh
- Kyushu 7d
- ¥18.19/kWh
- Hokkaido 7d
- ¥22.59/kWh
FIT · FIP · Corporate PPA · merchant · standalone & co-located BESS · based on actual area prices & TSO output profile
Revenue Calculator
Project inputs
Revenue is annualised from the selected historical window
Optional location discount on the 発電側課金 kW rate (default 0): the amount in your TSO's 系統連系受電サービス料金 table for your connection substation, from 1 Nov 2026 (for example 九州 A-1 ¥44.33); applied to all months
Shape follows the area's actual TSO output per day; level scaled to this CF. METI FY2024–26: ground-mounted ≥50 kW 18.3%, rooftop 14.5%
Legacy FIT (50–250 kW certified FY2024 ¥9.2 / FY2025 ¥8.9; not available to new 50 kW+ solar from FY2026)
FY2026 auction ceiling; enter your awarded price
FIP premium (legal formula)
grid-charge add-on if ≥FY2024
sets balancing cost BC
support runs 20 yrs from here
latest 再エネ指定 ¥1.21
Imbalance settlement (インバランス)
blank = EPRX-derived area aggregate 90-day mean-absolute error 10.7% for Kyushu (九州)
EPRX 三次② measures the day-ahead→gate-closure forecast revision, not the error vs actual output. Scale to a single plant here.
blank = 68.4% calibrated — |anomaly|-weighted share of Kyushu (九州) solar half-hours whose error direction matched the published 系統余剰/不足 (6,162 informative half-hours, 2025-10-23 → 2026-10-21; long × surplus 82%, short × shortage 55%); type a figure to override
FIP start FY is set once in the FIP premium inputs above; blank = computed from the バランシングコスト table; α (FY2027+) not yet decided = 0
blank = 1.9 half-hours/yr — half-hours with the OCCTO 広域予備率 below 5% in Kyushu (九州) (3 observed over 571 days, 2025-04-01 → 2026-10-23), scaled to a year; type a figure to override
FY2026 reference (editable defaults · ¥/kWh)
Ground-mounted ≥250 kWFIP, auction
Auction ceiling ¥9.60 in all four FY2026 rounds (28–31); each project gets its own awarded price.
発電側課金相当額 (max export ≥10 kW, certified ≥FY2024): +0.91 until 31 Oct 2026 · +1.05 from 1 Nov 2026
Ground-mounted 50–250 kWFIP only (no FIT for new 50 kW+ from FY2026)
¥9.6 (FY2025: ¥8.9)
発電側課金相当額 (max export ≥10 kW, certified ≥FY2024): +0.91 until 31 Oct 2026 · +1.05 from 1 Nov 2026
Ground-mounted 10–50 kWFIT with the self-consumption local-use requirement (FIP allowed in some cases)
¥9.9 (FY2025: ¥10)
発電側課金相当額 (max export ≥10 kW, certified ≥FY2024): +0.82 until 31 Oct 2026 · +0.95 from 1 Nov 2026
Rooftop ≥50 kWFIP only, no auction
¥19 for years 1–5, then ¥8.3 for years 6–20 (projects certified Oct 2025–FY2027)
発電側課金相当額 (max export ≥10 kW, certified ≥FY2024): +1.43 until 31 Oct 2026 · +1.64 from 1 Nov 2026
Rooftop 10–50 kWFIT with the self-consumption local-use requirement (FIP allowed in some cases)
¥19 for years 1–5, then ¥8.3 for years 6–20 (projects certified Oct 2025–FY2027)
発電側課金相当額 (max export ≥10 kW, certified ≥FY2024): +1.43 until 31 Oct 2026 · +1.64 from 1 Nov 2026
Residential <10 kWFIT
¥24 for years 1–4, then ¥8.3 for years 5–10
発電側課金相当額 (max export ≥10 kW, certified ≥FY2024): +0.38 until 31 Oct 2026 · +0.44 from 1 Nov 2026
From FY2027, new ground-mounted solar of 10 kW or more is not eligible for FIT or FIP, except FY2026 auction winners.
Source: METI, 19 Mar 2026 (news release) · ANRE FIT・FIP制度ガイドブック 2026 pp. 9–11. Editable defaults in ¥/kWh.
Price curve
Run the calculator against history (default) or your own forward curve
CSV formats:
date,slot,price (half-hourly, replaces history where present) or month,price (monthly average targets ¥/kWh, history reshaped to match)Data as of 2026-10-24 · model 2026.10.7
Annual generation
16.0GWh
Kyushu (九州) · 367d window
Capture price
7.69¥/kWh
66% of baseload 11.60
Avg FIP premium
3.57¥/kWh
base′ − reference (+ BC), legal formula
Curtailment loss
¥1057万/yr
8.57% of output (area ratio)
Imbalance settlement risk
Official area imbalance prices vs day-ahead over 366 days · adverse share 68% · 11% forecast error of energyEPRX-derived area aggregate · 90dadverse share calibrated · 系統余剰/不足 × VRE anomaly
Calibration: 68.4% of |anomaly| volume adverse (65.1% by count) over 6,162 informative half-hours 2025-10-23 → 2026-10-21 · when long 82% coincide with 系統余剰 · when short 55% with 系統不足
Expected cost / yr
¥226万
Cost per kWh generated
0.14 ¥
1,720 MWh error/yr × ¥1,429/MWh
Adverse bound / neutral
¥615万 / ¥0
100% adverse · uncorrelated errors
Merchant net of imbalance
¥1.21億
7,564 ¥/MWh
FIP net (+ allowance − cost)
¥1.94億
バランシングコスト 1.83 ¥/kWh (delivery FY2026 · start FY2025) = ¥2928万
¥300-regime stress (rule-based: 補正料金算定インデックス recomputed with C=¥300 / D=¥50, the 1 Oct 2026 rule): expected cost ¥235万/yr · rule recompute ¥232万 (+2.4%) · 223 of 497 補正 half-hours lifted · rule check max ¥0.005 · scarcity default from OCCTO 広域予備率 (<5%): 2 half-hours × 0.067 MWh short × 1,000 × (¥300 − ¥11.57 DA avg) = ¥4万
Imbalance prices are the official 30-minute area 余剰/不足インバランス料金単価 published by the nine general transmission and distribution companies on their joint site (インバランス料金情報公表ウェブサイト, imbalanceprices-cs.jp). Short positions settle at the shortage price, long positions at the surplus price. Per slot, the adverse spread is the direction that hurts (shortage − day-ahead when short, day-ahead − surplus when long) and the favourable spread the direction that helps. Expected cost per kWh of forecast error = adverse share × adverse spread + (1 − adverse share) × favourable spread; renewable forecast errors are correlated with system imbalance, so the default adverse share is 70%. FIP generators also receive the METI バランシングコスト allowance, which depends on the delivery and FIP-start fiscal years (FY2026 ¥1.70–2.00/kWh). FIT plants carry no imbalance exposure; physical corporate PPAs usually pass it to the retailer.
Annual revenue by scheme
Shape source: kyushu actual solar 30-min output each day, scaled to 10 MW × 18.3% CF (2025-10-23 to 2026-10-23)
Merchant (spot)
¥1.23億
7,691 ¥/MWh · ¥1233万/MW
FIT fixed
¥1.47億
9,200 ¥/MWh · ¥1475万/MW
FIP (spot + premium)
¥1.96億
12,255 ¥/MWh · ¥1965万/MW
Corporate PPA strike
¥1.92億
12,000 ¥/MWh · ¥1924万/MW
Virtual PPA (CfD) settlement at strike 12: ¥6908万/yr paid by offtaker to generator
- Corporate PPA strike
- FIP (spot + premium)
- FIT fixed
- Merchant (spot)
Generation profile vs area price
Average 48-slot output (MW) and area price over the window — the cannibalisation gap
- Area price ¥
- Output MW
Monthly breakdown
| Month | Days | MWh | Mkt avg ¥ | Capture ¥ | FIP prem ¥ | Merchant | FIT | FIP | PPA | CfD settle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10 | 9 | 352 | 9.13 | 4.77 | 3.31 | ¥168万 | ¥324万 | ¥451万 | ¥423万 | ¥101万 |
| 2025-11 | 30 | 1,071 | 9.18 | 4.97 | 5.57 | ¥532万 | ¥985万 | ¥1258万 | ¥1285万 | ¥302万 |
| 2025-12 | 31 | 1,045 | 9.96 | 7.78 | 3.18 | ¥813万 | ¥961万 | ¥1272万 | ¥1253万 | ¥213万 |
| 2026-01 | 31 | 1,289 | 10.33 | 7.85 | 3.19 | ¥1012万 | ¥1186万 | ¥1579万 | ¥1547万 | ¥215万 |
| 2026-02 | 28 | 1,229 | 9.61 | 5.91 | 4.88 | ¥726万 | ¥1130万 | ¥1475万 | ¥1474万 | ¥293万 |
| 2026-03 | 31 | 1,461 | 10.36 | 4.00 | 4.90 | ¥584万 | ¥1344万 | ¥1477万 | ¥1754万 | ¥240万 |
| 2026-04 | 30 | 1,046 | 10.61 | 4.61 | 3.12 | ¥482万 | ¥962万 | ¥935万 | ¥1255万 | ¥145万 |
| 2026-05 | 31 | 1,456 | 9.48 | 2.75 | 4.93 | ¥401万 | ¥1339万 | ¥1295万 | ¥1747万 | ¥367万 |
| 2026-06 | 30 | 1,092 | 10.02 | 6.15 | 4.57 | ¥672万 | ¥1005万 | ¥1303万 | ¥1311万 | ¥216万 |
| 2026-07 | 31 | 1,815 | 15.37 | 12.81 | 1.83 | ¥2326万 | ¥1670万 | ¥2878万 | ¥2178万 | ¥-612万 |
| 2026-08 | 31 | 1,939 | 16.77 | 13.84 | 1.83 | ¥2684万 | ¥1784万 | ¥3273万 | ¥2327万 | ¥-925万 |
| 2026-09 | 30 | 1,259 | 14.06 | 10.44 | 3.26 | ¥1314万 | ¥1158万 | ¥1877万 | ¥1510万 | ¥-259万 |
| 2026-10 | 24 | 1,065 | 14.48 | 6.41 | 0.00 | ¥682万 | ¥979万 | ¥682万 | ¥1277万 | ¥-264万 |
FIP premium — legal formula (施行規則 第3条の4・3条の5)
reference = min(max(A+NFC+(M−M′),0), base′) − BC · base′ = base + 発電側課金相当額 · day-ahead only
Total premium (incl. BC)
¥5751万
Certificate value in formula
¥1886万
Certificate revenue (sold)
¥1945万
Market revenue at area reference (M)
¥1.27億
Plant market revenue (capture price): ¥1.27億 · 12 complete months 2025-10 → 2026-09 · 2026-10 month to date (estimate): unit premium 6.26, 24d
| Month | A | M | M′ | NFC | R0 | Ref | BC | Unit prem ¥ | Premium ¥ | Market ¥ | Cert ¥ | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10 | 7.40 | 8.37 | 7.39 | 0.822 | 9.20 | 7.20 | 2.00 | 3.31 | ¥455万 | ¥1151万 | ¥166万 | OCCTO |
| 2025-11 | 7.40 | 4.97 | 6.25 | 0.822 | 6.94 | 4.94 | 2.00 | 5.57 | ¥596万 | ¥532万 | ¥130万 | OCCTO |
| 2025-12 | 7.40 | 7.79 | 7.06 | 1.204 | 9.33 | 7.33 | 2.00 | 3.18 | ¥332万 | ¥814万 | ¥126万 | OCCTO |
| 2026-01 | 7.40 | 7.85 | 7.13 | 1.204 | 9.32 | 7.32 | 2.00 | 3.19 | ¥411万 | ¥1012万 | ¥156万 | OCCTO |
| 2026-02 | 7.40 | 5.92 | 6.89 | 1.204 | 7.63 | 5.63 | 2.00 | 4.88 | ¥599万 | ¥727万 | ¥149万 | OCCTO |
| 2026-03 | 7.40 | 4.00 | 5.03 | 1.236 | 7.61 | 5.61 | 2.00 | 4.90 | ¥717万 | ¥585万 | ¥177万 | OCCTO |
| 2026-04 | 6.76 | 4.62 | 3.40 | 1.236 | 9.22 | 7.39 | 1.83 | 3.12 | ¥327万 | ¥483万 | ¥127万 | OCCTO |
| 2026-05 | 6.76 | 2.75 | 3.34 | 1.236 | 7.41 | 5.58 | 1.83 | 4.93 | ¥718万 | ¥400万 | ¥176万 | OCCTO |
| 2026-06 | 6.76 | 6.15 | 6.39 | 1.251 | 7.77 | 5.94 | 1.83 | 4.57 | ¥499万 | ¥672万 | ¥132万 | OCCTO |
| 2026-07 | 6.76 | 12.82 | 9.41 | 1.251 | 11.42 | 8.68 | 1.83 | 1.83 | ¥332万 | ¥2327万 | ¥220万 | OCCTO |
| 2026-08 | 6.76 | 13.84 | 8.91 | 1.251 | 12.94 | 8.68 | 1.83 | 1.83 | ¥355万 | ¥2684万 | ¥235万 | estimate (A from OCCTO) |
| 2026-09 | 6.76 | 10.44 | 9.39 | 1.272 | 9.08 | 7.25 | 1.83 | 3.26 | ¥410万 | ¥1314万 | ¥152万 | estimate (A from OCCTO) |
OCCTO = official 再エネ業務統合システム figure; estimate = JEPX Pulse day-ahead calculation (replaced when OCCTO publishes). The certificate value is deducted inside the reference and recovered only by selling the certificates.
Project finance · 20-year solar model
Year-1 revenue ¥1.21億 from the merchant case above · net of expected imbalance ¥226万 · pre-tax, unlevered · all inputs editable
Revenue basis
CAPEX ¥/kW · 建設単価
OPEX ¥/kW-yr · 運転維持費
Degradation %/yr · 出力劣化
Price escalation %/yr · 価格上昇
Discount rate % · 割引率
Lifetime (years) · 事業年数
Gearing % · 借入比率
Interest rate % · 金利
Debt tenor (yrs) · 返済年数
Tax, costs & reserves (optional) — results are pre-tax until a tax rate is entered
Tax depreciation method · 減価償却方法
Loss deduction limit · 繰越控除上限
Corporate tax rate % · 法人税率
Tax depreciation life (yrs) · 耐用年数
固定資産税 rate % · Fixed asset tax
Assessed value ¥ yr1 · 課税標準額
Assessed value decline %/yr · 評価減
解体等積立金 ¥/kWh · Decommissioning reserve
Decommissioning cost ¥/kW · 解体費用
Land lease ¥/yr · 土地賃料
Insurance ¥/yr · 保険料
発電側課金 ¥/yr · Grid charge
発電側課金 (merchant case in kyushu): auto schedule — FY2026 ¥1477万 (kW ¥1089万 + kWh ¥388万, Apr–Oct at the current rate, Nov–Mar at the 1 Nov 2026 rate); FY2027 ¥1600万 (kW ¥1183万 + kWh ¥417万 at the new rate); later years follow output after degradation. kW rate ¥85.1/kW·month, kWh ¥0.23/kWh (rate step from 2024-04-01). Generation-side network charge (発電側課金). 各一般送配電事業者 託送供給等約款（発電側課金 / 系統連系受電サービス料金）. 2024-04-01 施行値: 料金制度専門会合 第51回 資料3 (2023-12). 2026-11-01 改定: 2026-09-04 に METI が各社の託送供給等に係る収入の見通しを承認、2026-09-11 に各社が託送供給等約款の変更を届出、施行 2026-11-01 — 確認資料は 第24回 制度設計・監視専門会合 資料5 (2026-09-29), all nine areas; 九州電力送配電 別紙 (2026-09-11): 98.56 ¥/kW·月 (現行 85.10), 0.26 ¥/kWh (現行 0.23). 中国電力NW filed on 24 Aug 2026 under the same 電気事業法第18条第5項. Its revision reflects 料金収入の変動分 rather than the 4 Sep revenue-outlook approval. 北陸電力送配電 did not revise. Tax-included ¥. Location discounts (系統設備効率化割引, ¥/kW·month by connection substation) are entered by the user and subtracted from the kW rate in every month. Applied to merchant/PPA/post-FIT ≥10 kW and to FIT/FIP certified from FY2024 (the add-on in revenue compensates it); FIT/FIP certified before FY2024 are exempt during support; <10 kW exempt.
Capacity market / 長期脱炭素電源オークション (optional) — off
Mode · 区分
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